The U.S. could face a shortage of 90,000 doctors by 2025 as it struggles to cope with an older, sicker population and increased demand from Obamacare, a new report has warned.
The dire need for doctors, particularly surgeons treating diseases common among elderly people, such as cancer, was revealed by the Association of American Medical Colleges on Tuesday.
'The doctor shortage is real – it's significant – and it's particularly serious for the kind of medical care that our aging population is going to need,' said Darrell G. Kirch, CEO and president of AAMC, which represents medical schools and teaching hospitals across the country.
In its 2015 report, the association found that even though the supply of doctors will increase between now and 2015, the demand for physician services will fast out-grow this supply.
Struggle: A graph shows the predicted demand for doctors compared to the predicted supply between 2013 and 2015. The demand is thanks to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and retail clinics, among other factors
Problem: The greatest shortage will be for surgeons, particularly those treating diseases among the elderly
The number of physicians is expected to grow by nine per cent over the next ten years, but the demand for healthcare services could grown by up to 17 percent.
It predicted there could be a shortfall of between 46,100 and 90,400 doctors in 10 years' time and, of these, there could be a shortage of as many as 63,700 non-primary care physicians.
This is also considering how retail clinics and outpatient centers are turning more to nurse practitioners, physician assistants and other professionals instead of physicians, the report noted.
When looking at the cause behind the increased demand, the association pointed to increased life expectancy.
'An increasingly older, sicker population, as well as people living longer with chronic diseases, such as cancer, is the reason for the increased demand,' Kirch told the Washington Post.
The number of people over the age of 65 will soar by 40 percent by 2025, he said.
The association also noted that the implementation of the Affordable Care Act will likely increase demand. But it will do so only minimally - increasing the need for doctors by two per cent.
'The trends from these data are clear,' Kirch said in a statement. 'The physician shortage will grow over the next 10 years under every likely scenario.
Demands: The Association of American Medical Colleges, which compiled the report, has called upon the government to pay to train 3,000 more physicians a year in a bid to meet the growing demand
'Because training a doctor takes between five and 10 years, we must act now, in 2015, if we are going to avoid serious physician shortages in 2025.'
He called for more efficient care and more federal support to train at least 3,000 more students a year - at an estimated cost of $1 billion a year.
The association did note that the shortfalls aren't as bad as predictions in the past; in a 2010 study, they said there would be a shortage of 130,600 physicians.
The difference in predictions is thanks to revised population numbers and the slight rise in doctors completing medical school.
The AAMC, which is based in Washington, D.C., represents all 141 U.S. medical schools and 17 in Canada, and 400 major teaching hospitals and health systems.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2978146/U-S-faces-shortage-90-000-doctors-2025-country-struggles-cope-aging-population.html#ixzz3TMd266SR
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